{"id":2833,"date":"2023-08-01T11:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T10:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/?post_type=report&#038;p=2833"},"modified":"2025-02-07T05:16:11","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T05:16:11","slug":"policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk","status":"publish","type":"report","link":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2833\" class=\"elementor elementor-2833\" data-elementor-post-type=\"report\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ee660ca e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"4ee660ca\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-571d54a8 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"571d54a8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1d8dc5c6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-title elementor-page-title elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1d8dc5c6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-title.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-309ebf8e elementor-mobile-align-center elementor-align-left elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"309ebf8e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Global-Shield-How-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk-July-2024-for-Website.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Download the full report<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-266f9bda e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"266f9bda\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3f6bafd4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3f6bafd4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Executive Summary<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-48853848 e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"48853848\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7d7610a2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7d7610a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Since the mid-twentieth century, global trends in technology, politics, demographics and environmental impact have resulted in an unprecedented level of risk for human society. This global catastrophic risk (GCR) has the potential to inflict significant harm to human wellbeing on a global scale. In the most extreme case, the entire species could be at threat from extinction or permanent collapse.<\/p><p>The human species, as with other natural life, has always faced the risk of global catastrophe from natural hazards, such as supervolcanoes and asteroids. More recently, anthropogenic, or human-driven, threats have emerged and probably represent greater risk than natural hazards. These global catastrophic threats include advanced artificial intelligence (AI), extreme climate change, nuclear winter and engineered pandemics.<\/p><p>The potential for harm posed by these threats means that national governments have a responsibility to their citizens to proactively implement policy that would prevent, prepare for and respond to the risk. But the first step in any risk management process is to understand the risk.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-11f1646b elementor-widget elementor-widget-ucaddon_content_accordion\" data-id=\"11f1646b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"ucaddon_content_accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<!-- start Content Accordion -->\n\t\t<link id='font-awesome-css' href='https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/plugins\/unlimited-elements-for-elementor-premium\/assets_libraries\/font-awesome6\/fontawesome-all.min.css' type='text\/css' rel='stylesheet' >\n\t\t<link id='font-awesome-4-shim-css' href='https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/plugins\/unlimited-elements-for-elementor-premium\/assets_libraries\/font-awesome6\/fontawesome-v4-shims.min.css' type='text\/css' rel='stylesheet' >\n\n<style>\/* widget: Content Accordion *\/\n\n\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b *{\n  box-sizing: border-box;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .uc_ac_box\n{\n  overflow:hidden;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .ue_heading_title\n{\n  margin:0;\n  flex-grow:1;\n  display:flex;\n  flex-direction:row;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .uc_container .uc-heading\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n\toverflow:hidden;\n\tcursor:pointer;\n  \n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .uc_container .uc_content\n{\n    display:none;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .uc_container .uc-heading span.ue_accordion_icon\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n   \tjustify-content:center;\n    flex-grow:0;\n    flex-shrink:0;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .uc_ac_box.uc-item-active span.uc_dactive\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .uc_ac_box:not(.uc-item-active) span.uc_active\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b span.ue_accordion_icon svg\n{\n  height:1em;\n  width:1em;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .uc_container .uc_btn {\n\n    text-align: center;\n    display: inline-block;\n    text-decoration: none;\n    transition: ease-in-out all 0.25s;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b .ue-item-image img\n{\n  width:100%;\n  display:block;\n  object-fit:cover;\n}\n\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"uc_material_accordion  \"  id=\"uc_content_accordion_elementor_11f1646b\"  data-name=\"\" data-scroll=\"off\" data-offset=\"0\" data-closeothers=\"true\" data-set-hash=\"false\" >\n  <div class=\"uc_container uc-items-wrapper\">\n    \n\n\t\t\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab1\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-952c1be uc-item-active\" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class=''><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class=''><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy Vision<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" style='display:block'>\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\">Governments must ensure that they sufficiently understand GCR in order to design policies that prevent, prepare for, or respond to the risk. National governments should have a strong ability to identify, analyze and monitor the threats and hazards that could lead to GCR.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\t\t\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab2\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-3809abf uc-item-active\" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class=''><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class=''><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy Problem<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" style='display:block'>\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\">National governments often struggle with understanding global risk, and GCR specifically. The nature of GCR as an issue makes it difficult to understand and analyze. Governments can find it hard to think creatively about future and sudden changes to their risk profile. This is exacerbated by the frequent lack of scientific and technical expertise for global risk, including GCR.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\t\t\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab3\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-a4eaea1 uc-item-active\" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class=''><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class=''><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy Options<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" style='display:block'>\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\">Governments must better understand GCR and implement structures and processes that enable decision-makers to be more informed about the risk. Governments must improve their understanding of the set of threats and hazards, the vulnerabilities to GCR, and pathways and scenarios of risk. There are four areas in which governments can take action:\u00a0\n<ul>\n \t<li><b>Risk assessment<\/b>: identify and analyze GCR holistically to sufficiently inform policies for prevention, preparedness and response.<\/li>\n \t<li><b>Futures analysis<\/b>: improve practice and use of futures analysis, including horizon-scanning, forecasting and foresight activities, to alert policymakers to emerging threats and trends.<\/li>\n \t<li><b>Intelligence and warning<\/b>>: improve intelligence and warning capability on GCR to inform governments on imminent threats and trends in the global landscape.<\/li>\n \t<li><b>Science and research<\/b>: increase government\u2019s science and research capability on GCR so that policy solutions are supported by cutting-edge technical expertise.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<!-- end Content Accordion -->\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-357de570 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"357de570\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-38b0f6db elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"38b0f6db\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-687c71c e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"687c71c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-decfa6b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"decfa6b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b77d420 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"b77d420\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The policy options<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4821804 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4821804\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tGovernments must take action to better understand GCR and implement structures and processes that enable decision-makers to be more informed about the risk. A better understanding of GCR includes understanding the set of threats and hazards, the vulnerabilities to GCR, pathways and scenarios of risk, and their factors and implications. There are four areas in which governments can take action: \n<ul>\n<li>Risk assessment: identify and analyze GCR holistically to sufficiently inform policies for prevention, preparedness and response.<\/li>\n<li>Futures analysis: improve practice and use of futures analysis, including horizon-scanning, forecasting and foresight activities, to alert policymakers to emerging threats and trends.<\/li>\n<li>Intelligence and warning: improve intelligence and warning capability on GCR to inform governments on threats and trends in the global landscape.<\/li>\n<li>Science and research: Increase government\u2019s science and research capability on GCR so that policy solutions are supported by cutting-edge technical expertise.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-de7d72e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"de7d72e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-913781d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"913781d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2e7580c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2e7580c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Risk assessment: Identify &amp; analyze GCR holistically<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c3a347b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c3a347b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4894ab6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-ucaddon_content_accordion\" data-id=\"4894ab6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"ucaddon_content_accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<!-- start Content Accordion -->\n\n<style>\/* widget: Content Accordion *\/\n\n\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 *{\n  box-sizing: border-box;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .uc_ac_box\n{\n  overflow:hidden;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .ue_heading_title\n{\n  margin:0;\n  flex-grow:1;\n  display:flex;\n  flex-direction:row;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .uc_container .uc-heading\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n\toverflow:hidden;\n\tcursor:pointer;\n  \n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .uc_container .uc_content\n{\n    display:none;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .uc_container .uc-heading span.ue_accordion_icon\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n   \tjustify-content:center;\n    flex-grow:0;\n    flex-shrink:0;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .uc_ac_box.uc-item-active span.uc_dactive\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .uc_ac_box:not(.uc-item-active) span.uc_active\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 span.ue_accordion_icon svg\n{\n  height:1em;\n  width:1em;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .uc_container .uc_btn {\n\n    text-align: center;\n    display: inline-block;\n    text-decoration: none;\n    transition: ease-in-out all 0.25s;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6 .ue-item-image img\n{\n  width:100%;\n  display:block;\n  object-fit:cover;\n}\n\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"uc_material_accordion  \"  id=\"uc_content_accordion_elementor_4894ab6\"  data-name=\"\" data-scroll=\"off\" data-offset=\"0\" data-closeothers=\"true\" data-set-hash=\"false\" >\n  <div class=\"uc_container uc-items-wrapper\">\n    \n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab1\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-4fa9a69 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 1: Develop centralized all-hazards risk assessment process<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><p><em>Simple option:<\/em> Develop and implement a regular all-hazards risk assessment process for all threats and hazards to the homeland originating domestically or internationally, ensuring to capture long-term and highly unlikely risk.<\/p><p><em>Advanced option:<\/em> Develop a detailed assessment of global catastrophic and existential risk that includes a comprehensive list of potential catastrophic or existential threats, including those threats that may have very low likelihood, as well as technical assessments and lay explanations of the threats, including potential pathways and scenarios.<\/p><p><strong>Case study 1: UK National Risk Assessment<\/strong><br \/>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/collections\/national-risk-register-of-civil-emergencies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UK\u2019s National Risk Assessment process<\/a>, run out of the Cabinet Office, is an example that could be adopted by other countries. Since 2008, the biennial review has assessed domestic hazards with the purpose of informing national resilience planning and local-level emergency planning. Separately, every five years since 2010, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/national-security-strategy-and-strategic-defence-and-security-review-2015\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA)<\/a> has reviewed security concerns overseas to inform the National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review. In 2019, both assessments were combined so that domestic and foreign risks were assessed using a common methodology.<\/p><p>Despite the UK\u2019s relatively mature process, the UK\u2019s Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology <a href=\"https:\/\/researchbriefings.parliament.uk\/ResearchBriefing\/Summary\/POST-PB-0031\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">identified<\/a> challenges and limitations to these assessments, including the focus on short-term acute risk rather than long-term and chronic risk, such as climate change or antimicrobial resistance. The House of Lords published a <a href=\"https:\/\/publications.parliament.uk\/pa\/ld5802\/ldselect\/ldrisk\/110\/110.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a> in December 2021 that evaluated the UK government's preparedness for extreme risk. It found that the government's focus on risk as discrete threats ignored its interconnected and complex nature. Additionally, the NSRA\u2019s reports were published with an unnecessary degree of secrecy, making them impenetrable to outside expert scrutiny and suggestions for improvement. Finally, the assessment was seen to be unsuitable to address chronic risk or high-consequence, low-likelihood events.<\/p><p>In 2021, the UK Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat <a href=\"https:\/\/raeng.org.uk\/policy-and-resources\/engineering-policy\/security-and-resilience\/nsra\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">commissioned<\/a> the Royal Academy of Engineering (RAEng) to review the NSRA methodology. The review made 11 recommendations, many of which RAEng claims have been incorporated into the 2022 NSRA process. In 2023, the UK <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/national-risk-register-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">released<\/a> its latest National Risk Register based on the upgraded process.<\/p><\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab2\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-93c0d71 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 2: Understand the country\u2019s contribution to the manifestation of global catastrophic risk<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><em>Simple option:<\/em> Map existing government programs according to how they relate to national and global catastrophic risk.\n\nAdvanced option: Conduct a review of the actions of all stakeholders \u2013 from state and local governments to business sectors and citizens \u2013 that contribute to manifestation of national and global catastrophic risk.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab3\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-b9371cc \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 3: Conduct a capability and resilience assessment<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><em>Simple option:<\/em> Develop a national capability assessment to understand the capabilities \u2013 such as critical infrastructure, emergency services and other national assets \u2013 that would reduce impact of nationally significant threats and hazards.\n\nAdvanced option: Develop a holistic and regular capability and resilience assessment for GCR.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<!-- end Content Accordion -->\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-48c00cd e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"48c00cd\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d00c284 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d00c284\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9dc1420 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9dc1420\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Future analysis: Improve practice and use of futures analysis<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d792d15 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d792d15\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-876cb36 elementor-widget elementor-widget-ucaddon_content_accordion\" data-id=\"876cb36\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"ucaddon_content_accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<!-- start Content Accordion -->\n\n<style>\/* widget: Content Accordion *\/\n\n\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 *{\n  box-sizing: border-box;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .uc_ac_box\n{\n  overflow:hidden;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .ue_heading_title\n{\n  margin:0;\n  flex-grow:1;\n  display:flex;\n  flex-direction:row;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .uc_container .uc-heading\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n\toverflow:hidden;\n\tcursor:pointer;\n  \n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .uc_container .uc_content\n{\n    display:none;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .uc_container .uc-heading span.ue_accordion_icon\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n   \tjustify-content:center;\n    flex-grow:0;\n    flex-shrink:0;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .uc_ac_box.uc-item-active span.uc_dactive\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .uc_ac_box:not(.uc-item-active) span.uc_active\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 span.ue_accordion_icon svg\n{\n  height:1em;\n  width:1em;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .uc_container .uc_btn {\n\n    text-align: center;\n    display: inline-block;\n    text-decoration: none;\n    transition: ease-in-out all 0.25s;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36 .ue-item-image img\n{\n  width:100%;\n  display:block;\n  object-fit:cover;\n}\n\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"uc_material_accordion  \"  id=\"uc_content_accordion_elementor_876cb36\"  data-name=\"\" data-scroll=\"off\" data-offset=\"0\" data-closeothers=\"true\" data-set-hash=\"false\" >\n  <div class=\"uc_container uc-items-wrapper\">\n    \n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab1\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-4fa9a69 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 4: Increase and improve futures analysis through central unit or agency that leads regular foresight and horizon-scanning activities<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><p><em>Simple option: <\/em>Create a futures analysis center in a central government agency that provides support, training and frameworks to other departmental foresight units, leads whole-of-government foresight activities for major policy questions and initiatives, determines the work program in line with the wider agenda, and maintains a database of horizon-scanning products to prevent duplication of effort and to encourage knowledge sharing.<\/p><p><em>Advanced option: <\/em>Create a futures analysis agency reporting to the head of government which, in addition to the activities of the central futures analysis center, conducts all-source assessment and policy analysis for GCR, and coordinates with stakeholders inside and outside government.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Case study 2: Futures analysis around the world<\/strong><br \/>Singapore\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csf.gov.sg\/who-we-are\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Centre for Strategic Futures,<\/a> based in the Prime Minister\u2019s Office, is a noteworthy example for horizon scanning for the government. It focuses on potential blind-spot, pursues open-ended long-term futures research, and experiments with new foresight methodologies.<\/p><p>In the UK, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/groups\/horizon-scanning-programme-team\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Horizon Scanning Programme<\/a> team in the Cabinet Office provides a central coordination function for the UK\u2019s horizon-scanning efforts, while the Government Office for Science\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/foresightprojects.blog.gov.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Futures<\/a> team supports portfolio-level horizon scanning, conducts futures analysis on cross-cutting and long-term issues, and delivers training and development for civil servants.<\/p><p>This capability provides governments with a way to develop and interpret a range of possible futures. Used in conjunction with risk assessment efforts, these capabilities can help identify new threats, explore future scenarios and reduce uncertainty.<\/p><p>Researchers of existential and global catastrophic risk have commonly used and recommended these techniques, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/1758-5899.12786\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">horizon-scanning<\/a>, scenario-building, forecasting competitions and red-teaming.<\/p><\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab2\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-93c0d71 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 5: Inject futures analysis into government policy-making processes <\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><p><em>Simple option: <\/em>Develop a future analysis toolkit for policy officers and train them on the techniques, and create a small team to broker between foresight producers and policymakers.<\/p><p><em>Advanced option:<\/em> Incorporate a mandatory futures analysis process during major policy decisions, supported by a senior horizon\u00ad-scanning oversight group, which commissions new work, ensures relevant judgements and implications are drawn from horizon-scanning activity, and reports highest priority implications to decision-makers.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Case study 3: Lessons from government futures activities<\/strong><\/p><p>Futures analysis can be a useful tool because it provides governments with a way to develop and interpret a range of possible futures. Risk managers and intelligence analysts\u2019 jobs generally require them to be more conservative and shorter-term in their thinking, but futures analysis exercises can be more conducive environments for speculative or long-term future imagination. So it allows for discussing and mainstreaming the consideration of global catastrophic risk. Based on multiple reviews of foresight activities, linking strategic-level insights with policymaking is a major challenge for most governments that conduct futures analysis:<\/p><ul><li>One of the widest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iss.europa.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/2.1_Foresight_in_governments.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reviews<\/a> of foresight and horizon-scanning practice in government was conducted by the European Union Institute for Security Studies in its 2013 yearbook.<\/li><li>The European Commission\u2019s internal expert group, the Research, Innovation and Science Experts, published a <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/info\/sites\/info\/files\/research_and_innovation\/groups\/rise\/cuhls-lessons_policy_making.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a> in 2015 on the lessons for policy-making from foresight in countries outside Europe, with a focus on countries in the Asia-Pacific region.<\/li><li>Leon Fuerth\u2019s 2012 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/s\/z7jjk626ddf51oo\/Anticipatory_Governance_Practical_Upgrades.pdf?dl=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a>, \u201cAnticipatory Governance: Practical Upgrades\u201d, provides a detailed analysis of foresight-policy integration and recommends four broad policy actions: organizing a foresight system, brokering between foresight and policy, incentivising foresight, and training professionals for foresight.<\/li><li>Switzerland-based think tank, the Center for Security Studies, released a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.files.ethz.ch\/isn\/96274\/Horizon-Scanning-in-Government.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a> in 2009 on horizon scanning to inform the Swiss government.<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Ideally, futures analysis processes must directly engage senior policymakers, in that they are involved in the thinking, not just receiving the outputs. The question or topic being addressed must be framed by the real-world interests of policymakers and shaped to address an explicit policy need. The policy implications and recommendations should be clearly drawn out, with a mechanism to integrate futures analysis into the policymaking process. To be effective, futures analysis must be well coordinated and implemented across government.<\/p><\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<!-- end Content Accordion -->\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d84a69e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"d84a69e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-efaa58c e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"efaa58c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-02f5ae5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"02f5ae5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Intelligence and warning: Improve intelligence and warnings capability on GCR<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2dfe818 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"2dfe818\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1a00846 elementor-widget elementor-widget-ucaddon_content_accordion\" data-id=\"1a00846\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"ucaddon_content_accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<!-- start Content Accordion -->\n\n<style>\/* widget: Content Accordion *\/\n\n\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 *{\n  box-sizing: border-box;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .uc_ac_box\n{\n  overflow:hidden;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .ue_heading_title\n{\n  margin:0;\n  flex-grow:1;\n  display:flex;\n  flex-direction:row;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .uc_container .uc-heading\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n\toverflow:hidden;\n\tcursor:pointer;\n  \n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .uc_container .uc_content\n{\n    display:none;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .uc_container .uc-heading span.ue_accordion_icon\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n   \tjustify-content:center;\n    flex-grow:0;\n    flex-shrink:0;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .uc_ac_box.uc-item-active span.uc_dactive\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .uc_ac_box:not(.uc-item-active) span.uc_active\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 span.ue_accordion_icon svg\n{\n  height:1em;\n  width:1em;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .uc_container .uc_btn {\n\n    text-align: center;\n    display: inline-block;\n    text-decoration: none;\n    transition: ease-in-out all 0.25s;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846 .ue-item-image img\n{\n  width:100%;\n  display:block;\n  object-fit:cover;\n}\n\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"uc_material_accordion  \"  id=\"uc_content_accordion_elementor_1a00846\"  data-name=\"\" data-scroll=\"off\" data-offset=\"0\" data-closeothers=\"true\" data-set-hash=\"false\" >\n  <div class=\"uc_container uc-items-wrapper\">\n    \n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab1\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-4fa9a69 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 6: Devote specific resourcing towards analyzing and warning about existential threats and global catastrophes<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><em>Simple option:<\/em> Develop a standing capability, such as an extreme global threats team, sitting within the central analytical agency to conduct all-source intelligence analysis on current and emerging threats.\n\nAdvanced option: Establish an intelligence mission around GCR, with a mission manager that allocates the resources devoted to this mission, coordinates agencies around the topic and presents a central point of responsibility for policymakers.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab2\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-93c0d71 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 7: Regularly publish intelligence products on issues relating to GCR<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><em>Simple option:<\/em> Produce regular assessments on national security aspects and implications of GCR, such as from extreme climate change, advanced AI, engineered pandemics, near-Earth objects, solar storms, speculative technologies and geoengineering.\n\n<em>Advanced option: <\/em>Develop a register of global risk with a long-term (say, 20-plus years) outlook along with an annual report to national leaders.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab3\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-5d1b1b1 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 8: Establish GCR monitoring and warning system<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><p><em>Simple option:<\/em> Develop a set of warnings and triggers within the intelligence analysis agency across a range of global catastrophic threats, and conduct continuous surveillance and monitoring.<\/p><p><em>Advanced option: <\/em>Establish a National Warning Office.<\/p><p><strong>Case study 4: National Warnings Office<\/strong><\/p><p>Former senior US national security officials, Richard Clarke and RP Eddy, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com.au\/Warnings-Finding-Cassandras-Stop-Catastrophes\/dp\/0062488023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recommend<\/a> a National Warnings Office be installed in the White House to focus on possible catastrophes that are not being addressed in other parts of government. Their idea is based on the National Intelligence Officer for Warning, who was the intelligence community\u2019s principal advisor on warnings and had a direct line to the White House, but was disbanded in 2009. They recommend that \u201cThe office should not address ongoing, chronic problems, such as obesity. Rather, the focus should be on possible impending disasters that are not being addressed by any part of government. The National Warning Office should also work through the interagency and the White House on two institutional goals: first, to create management and decision-making environments that nurture..; and second, to develop a small cadre of people drawn from every cabinet agency to establish processes and information sharing to recognize sentinel intelligence.\u201d<\/p><\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<!-- end Content Accordion -->\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ceda361 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ceda361\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5f16366 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5f16366\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0800893 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"0800893\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Science and research: Increase government\u2019s science and research capability on GCR<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d88bdb1 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d88bdb1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9211d88 elementor-widget elementor-widget-ucaddon_content_accordion\" data-id=\"9211d88\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"ucaddon_content_accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<!-- start Content Accordion -->\n\n<style>\/* widget: Content Accordion *\/\n\n\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 *{\n  box-sizing: border-box;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .uc_ac_box\n{\n  overflow:hidden;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .ue_heading_title\n{\n  margin:0;\n  flex-grow:1;\n  display:flex;\n  flex-direction:row;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .uc_container .uc-heading\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n\toverflow:hidden;\n\tcursor:pointer;\n  \n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .uc_container .uc_content\n{\n    display:none;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .uc_container .uc-heading span.ue_accordion_icon\n{\n\tdisplay:flex;\n    align-items:center;\n   \tjustify-content:center;\n    flex-grow:0;\n    flex-shrink:0;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .uc_ac_box.uc-item-active span.uc_dactive\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .uc_ac_box:not(.uc-item-active) span.uc_active\n{\n\tdisplay:none;\n}\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 span.ue_accordion_icon svg\n{\n  height:1em;\n  width:1em;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .uc_container .uc_btn {\n\n    text-align: center;\n    display: inline-block;\n    text-decoration: none;\n    transition: ease-in-out all 0.25s;\n}\n\n#uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88 .ue-item-image img\n{\n  width:100%;\n  display:block;\n  object-fit:cover;\n}\n\n<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"uc_material_accordion  \"  id=\"uc_content_accordion_elementor_9211d88\"  data-name=\"\" data-scroll=\"off\" data-offset=\"0\" data-closeothers=\"true\" data-set-hash=\"false\" >\n  <div class=\"uc_container uc-items-wrapper\">\n    \n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab1\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-4fa9a69 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 9: Develop in-house science and research on GCR<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><em>Simple option:<\/em> Appoint in each government department or agency a chief science advisor and office with ownership over studying and understanding GCR in their portfolio.\n\n<em>Advanced option: <\/em>Develop a cross-government team from civilian and defense research and science agencies to study domestic and international security and economic effects of GCR, capitalize on and consolidate existing knowledge, and develop and apply methodologies and models to assess risks, vulnerabilities and exposure to all hazards.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab2\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-93c0d71 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 10: Improve linkages between science and policy for GCR<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><p><em>Simple option: <\/em>Form an external advisory group to the government on global catastrophic risk that includes key sectors such as health and education, academia, civil society, defense, food, energy, infrastructure, banking and insurance.<\/p><p><em>Advanced option: <\/em>Establish an independent body that provides analysis and recommendations on policies relating to GCR.<\/p><p><strong>Case study 5: The UK\u2019s science-policy linkages<\/strong><\/p><p>The UK is a world leader in improving the linkages between science and policy. The UK government has a network of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/groups\/chief-scientific-advisers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">departmental chief scientific advisors<\/a> (CSAs), led by the Government Chief Scientific Advisor (GCSA). No less than 26 other departments and agencies have CSAs. The GCSA also chairs the Council for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/organisations\/council-for-science-and-technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Science and Technology<\/a>, which is the Prime Minister\u2019s independent advisory body on cross-cutting science and technology issues. Its members are leading figures in the science, technology, academic and business community. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.parliament.uk\/post\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology (POST)<\/a> provides in-house support and analysis to the UK parliament on public-policy issues related to science and technology. POST publishes short and long form briefs for parliamentarians, conducts horizon-scanning activities and supports linkages between parliament and the academic communities. Scientific advice permeates into the policy-making space as well via groups like the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theccc.org.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Committee on Climate Change<\/a>, which is an independent statutory body that advises the government on all aspects of policy relating to emissions targets.<\/p><\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"#ue-tab3\" class=\"uc_ac_box elementor-repeater-item-5d1b1b1 \" style=\"background-color:;\">\n  <a href=\"javascript:void(0)\" class=\"uc-heading uc_trigger\" role=\"button\">\n    <span class=\"uc_dactive bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-plus'><\/i><\/span> \n    <span class=\"uc_active bbb ue_accordion_icon\"><i class='fas fa-minus'><\/i><\/span>\n    <div class=\"ue_heading_title\">Policy action 11: Support academic and scientific research on GCR<\/div>\n  <\/a>\n  \n  <div class=\"uc_content\" >\n        \n      \n         \n                      \n            <div class=\"ue-item-title\"><\/div>\n      \n              <div class=\"ue-item-text\"><em>Simple option: <\/em>Provide funding to external advisory groups, centers or institutes that study the science of GCR to conduct policy-driven research.\n\nAdvanced option: Develop a standing capability with academics and researchers to conduct joint research on GCR.<\/div>\n      \n              \n      <\/div> \n<\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<!-- end Content Accordion -->\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fab24ef e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"fab24ef\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This policy brief was developed by Global Shield\u2019s policy team, led by cofounder and Director of Policy, Rumtin Sepasspour. It is the first in a series on how governments can reduce global catastrophic risk. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2663,"template":"","categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2833","report","type-report","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This policy brief was developed by Global Shield\u2019s policy team. The first in a series on how governments can reduce global catastrophic risk.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This policy brief was developed by Global Shield\u2019s policy team. The first in a series on how governments can reduce global catastrophic risk.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Global Shield\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-07T05:16:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/\",\"name\":\"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-01T10:22:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-02-07T05:16:11+00:00\",\"description\":\"This policy brief was developed by Global Shield\u2019s policy team. The first in a series on how governments can reduce global catastrophic risk.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1707},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/\",\"name\":\"Global Shield\",\"description\":\"Shaping policy. Averting catastrophe.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Global Shield\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Global-Shield-Logo.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Global-Shield-Logo.svg\",\"width\":175,\"height\":40,\"caption\":\"Global Shield\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk","description":"This policy brief was developed by Global Shield\u2019s policy team. The first in a series on how governments can reduce global catastrophic risk.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk","og_description":"This policy brief was developed by Global Shield\u2019s policy team. The first in a series on how governments can reduce global catastrophic risk.","og_url":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/","og_site_name":"Global Shield","article_modified_time":"2025-02-07T05:16:11+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1707,"url":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"11 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/","url":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/","name":"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg","datePublished":"2023-08-01T10:22:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-02-07T05:16:11+00:00","description":"This policy brief was developed by Global Shield\u2019s policy team. The first in a series on how governments can reduce global catastrophic risk.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/scott-van-hoy-nT-hGJLbn0s-unsplash-scaled.jpg","width":2560,"height":1707},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/report\/policy-brief-how-governments-can-better-understand-global-catastrophic-risk\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"How governments can better understand global catastrophic risk"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#website","url":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/","name":"Global Shield","description":"Shaping policy. Averting catastrophe.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#organization","name":"Global Shield","url":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Global-Shield-Logo.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Global-Shield-Logo.svg","width":175,"height":40,"caption":"Global Shield"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/report\/2833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/report"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/report"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"version-history":[{"count":38,"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/report\/2833\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7722,"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/report\/2833\/revisions\/7722"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/2design.co\/globals\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}